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Slim chance of northern lights visible this week, more likely to happen over the next two years

Dancing green and grey glows might be visible from Vancouver Island and the Sunshine Coast as the weekend nears.

According to Royal Astronomical Society of Canada Victoria Centre member Sherry Buttnor, it is possible that we could see a glimmer of the northern lights between Thursday and Friday nights.

However, Buttnor says the chances are likely slim as there are many factors that need to come into play.

“The reason being is that the incoming coronal mass ejection isn’t aimed directly at the earth,” said Buttnor. “Sometimes it’s aimed directly at us, we know it’s going to hit and we know it’s going to be big fun.

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“This time it seems to be mostly passing below earth’s orbit, so that kind of means we’re only going to catch a piece or the edge of this thing.”

The coronal mass ejections are the by-product of sunspots breaks that create a solar flare. Buttnor says this releases a stream of highly charged magnetic particles moving much faster than solar wind.

She adds that usually when they hit the earth’s atmosphere, they tend to be more colourful and explosive. However, it also depends on if the particles interact correctly with the earth’s magnetic field.

“None of this is guaranteed. I’ve seen dead on hits from these coronal mass ejections where no auroras have ever happened because we didn’t get that proper connection,” said Buttnor.

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This coming week, she says we could expect to see a small glow on the northern horizon mainly because it was not a strong ejection. Spectators might see a grey or green glow with the odd pillar or ray shooting up.

If you are trying to get a better view, she says using a camera will help bring the colours out as they are not usually strong enough to trigger our eyes, and to be patient and look for them between 11 p.m. and 1 a.m.

However, it is likely not the only time we could see the lights in the future. Buttnor says we are getting closer to the peak of the 11-year solar cycle, which means we are seeing more sunspots, solar flares and mass ejections.

Buttnor adds patience is the key to seeing the northern lights. She also recommends you monitor spaceweather.com to see current conditions.

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